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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2013  |  Volume : 3  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 25-30

Variations in sub-national road traffic fatality trends in a low-income country


1 Section of Injury and Violence Prevention, Public Health Solutions Pakistan, Lahore, Pakistan; Addiction Research Program, Douglas Hospital Research Centre, Montreal, Canada
2 Office of N-5, Sector I South Zone, National Highway and Motorway Police, Karachi, Pakistan
3 Section of Injury and Violence Prevention, Public Health Solutions Pakistan, Lahore, Pakistan
4 Department of Emergency Medicine, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan

Correspondence Address:
Junaid A Bhatti
Public Health Solutions Pakistan, 269-Y Block, Office 1, First Floor, DHA Phase 1, Lahore, Pakistan

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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/2229-5151.109415

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Background: In most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), road traffic fatality (RTF) trends are presented in aggregated form at the national level. This practice omits important information regarding RTF risk at sub-national levels. Objective: This ecological study assesses the extent of RTF variations at different sub-national levels in Pakistan, a low-income country. Materials and Methods: Based on official statistics, significant variations in three RTF indicators i.e. per population, per registered vehicles, and per crash were compared by regression analyses at two sub-national levels i.e. provincially (2000-2009) and district-wise (2004). Results: The national RTF counts are based on data from four provinces. From 2000 to 2009, RTF per population and per registered vehicles decreased in all provinces except Balochistan. RTF per crash in Punjab decreased from 0.61 to 0.56 (beta coefficient (β) year = -0.0082, P = <0.001), whereas in Balochistan it increased from 0.40 to 0.58 (β year = 0.0708, P = <0.001) over the same period. District-level comparisons were possible only in Punjab where RTF per crash varied from 0.25 to 2.15 and correlated (β = 0.50, P = 0.003) with RTF per population. Conclusions: Sub-national RTF surveillance is necessary in LMICs like Pakistan in order to prioritize available resources on high-risk jurisdictions such as the Balochistan province and districts of Punjab where high RTF per population and per crash exist.


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